Retail turnover growth slowing

• SA retail spending is trending downwards, recording growth of 6.0% y-o-y in November 2023 versus 7.5% in August 2023. Spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway and department stores recorded the strongest performance of all categories, with growth of 16.3% y-o-y, while clothing, footwear and accessories was the second strongest performer (up 10.6% y-o-y).
• Luxury retailers, national fashion retailers and hospitality groups continued to secure new high profile retail space in the Adelaide CBD’s Rundle Mall.

A strong labour force continues to drive supply

• The supply pipeline in Adelaide is expanding and over the past year of 2023, four new neighbourhood shopping centres completed, adding 17,200 sqm of consumer staples-oriented retail to stock.
• There is 32,200 sqm of retail space currently under construction, with the latest project due for completion in Q4 2025. In addition to projects already under construction, there are two projects with plans approved, totalling 15,500 sqm.

Rents and yields broadly stable

• Average rents across all sub-sectors were broadly stable, with minor growth over the quarter. Retailer demand for space remains resilient and incentives continue to be a key lever in lease negotiations with national retailers.
• Yields across all sub-sectors were unchanged over the quarter, except the regional sub-sector which decompressed 63 bps.

Outlook: Vacancy to increase as consumer spending decreases

• Vacancy risk in centres with exposure to more discretionary retailing is expected to increase over the short to medium term, as consumer purchasing power decreases due to heightened cost-of-living pressures.
• Investor demand for defensive retail assets like neighbourhood centres and stand-alone supermarkets is expected to continue increasing due to its non-discretionary nature. With broader economic conditions likely to stabilise in 2024, investment volumes are also projected to increase.