Demand contracts amid income uncertainty and buyer caution

• Guangzhou’s housing demand experienced a contraction, driven by heightened uncertainty surrounding household income expectations and weaker price appreciation prospects.
• Transactions were mainly supported by rigid demand, whereas high-end buyers showed stronger wait-and-see sentiment due to less urgent needs.

High-end primary market sees slower new launches

• Amid weak sales, developers slowed schedules for new launches. Overall, new launches in the primary high-end market fell to 609 units in the third quarter.
• Three high-end projects were completed during the quarter, adding 743 units to inventory.

Capital value and rents continue to decline

• Units with high efficiency ratios remain popular and show stronger price resilience, while other primary and secondary homes require deeper discounts to attract buyers. Overall, primary and secondary high-end prices dropped 1.9% and 4.8% q-o-q respectively.
• Leasing demand for high-end properties softened as tenant income expectations became more uncertain. At the same time, more owners opted to “rent instead of sell” amid accelerating price declines.

Outlook: Housing demand may remain sluggish

• Amid weak economic and real estate conditions, housing demand is expected to remain soft, while high-end housing prices, particularly in the secondary market, are likely to continue declining. Primary homes may stabilise earlier due to product advantages.
• As the government has increased the supply of residential land with low plot ratio since 2025, primary high-end supply is expected to rise starting next year.