Primary home sales contracts amid reduced new supply

• Fewer new launches coupled with seasonal effects led primary sales volume to fall 16.8% q-o-q to 1.57 million sqm in Q3 2024. Pre-sales performances further diverged across new projects, with good-value projects in prime locations remaining popular among homebuyers.
• Homebuying demand for new high-end projects remained solid in Q3 2024. Projects located in prime locations such as Xuhui District and Huangpu Bund were particularly well received. A total of 947 high-end units were registered as sold in Q3 2024.

Twelve high-end projects launch for sale in Q3 2024

• With many new projects launched in the previous quarter, the primary home supply in Q3 2024 totalled only 1.68 million sqm, down 26.2% q-o-q.
• High-end supply remained ample in the quarter as 12 projects with a total of 1,610 units were launched for sale, up 422.7% y-o-y. The average price of those newly launched high-end projects ranged between RMB 128,600 and 210,000 per sqm.

High-end primary prices edge up further

• Looser price caps allowed the average primary price to edge up 0.3% q-o-q to RMB 143,700 per sqm in Q3 2024. However, the average secondary price fell 3.9% q-o-q to RMB 142,900 per sqm amid continued homebuying caution in the secondary market in the quarter.
• High-end rents continued to decline as increased available units and soft leasing demand led homeowners to further extend rent concessions. Average high-end apartment rent recorded RMB 170.7 per sqm per month in Q3 2024, down 3.4% q-o-q.

Outlook: Demand from upgraders to remain solid

• Shanghai’s high-end segment will continue to benefit from robust upgrading demand. Late September’s new policies, including further relaxed HPR for non-locals, eased housing mortgage rules, and lower down payment ratios, will help enhance demand and market confidence.
• We expect high-end primary prices to edge up further amid looser price caps. Meanwhile, high-end secondary prices are likely to remain under pressure as buying demand continues to be diluted by primary projects in the coming quarters.