APPD Market Report Article
BrisbaneNovember 29, 2022
Leigh Warner, Senior Director - Residential Research, Australia
Sales volumes continue to decline
- Brisbane’s general housing market was slower to move into a softening than other markets, but it is clearly now happening. Stronger population growth than other parts of the country has been one reason for this relative resilience. Demand for apartment pre-sales has reduced somewhat, yet the boutique segment of the market has proven resilient.
- Sales transactions in Brisbane declined for the third consecutive quarter. Despite this, volumes remain 32% higher than the preceding year and above historical averages. Interest rate rises and cooling prices are the largest contributors to this decline over the year.
New supply across the Brisbane inner city remains low
- Stock delivery has gradually lifted over 2022, with a total of 1,015 apartments reaching completion YTD. Construction delays are pushing the completion date for some projects into 2023. The under construction pipeline remains weakest in the Inner East and West precincts, accounting for only 7% and 3% of the pipeline respectively.
- The future supply pipeline for Brisbane remains muted, with below historical average levels of completions expected over the next five years. Much of this future supply is situated in the Inner North and Inner South precincts, accounting for 66% of the future pipeline.
Asking rents surge due to low vacancy
- Strong population growth has continued to put downward pressure on vacancy rates across Greater Brisbane, falling to just 0.7% in September-22. The Brisbane Inner City (postcode 4000) has recorded a vacancy rate of just 2.0%, a 6.6%pt decline y-o-y (SQM Research).
- Increasing rental demand continued to push rental rates higher, rising 8.0% over the quarter and 12.5% annually. The median rent for a 2 bedroom unit is AUD 540 per week, which had the highest increase of all capital cities on an annual basis.
Outlook: Momentum in Brisbane should withstand riding interest rates
- While headwinds remain for demand in all markets, there are positives that support Brisbane demand over the next year and medium-term. These include robust population growth prospects, solid downsizer demand and increasing investor demand. While the trough of new supply has been passed, Brisbane apartment supply levels are likely to remain very low for at least several more years.
- Lack of new supply coming to market will only intensify competition for available stock and this should support apartment prices in the short-term and see them return to robust growth over the medium-term horizon.