Demand drivers remain solid

• Despite some general housing demand headwinds from higher interest rates, the underlying drivers of Brisbane residential demand remain robust. In particular, a solid local economy and a large local infrastructure program continue to drive jobs growth and strong inward migration.
• For apartments off-the-plan, demand remains robust for premium units aimed at owner-occupiers, particularly from downsizers. Demand for mass-market apartment projects is still more patchy, but with so few projects being actively marketed some of those that have launched have sold quickly.

Supply remains very limited

• New supply levels have already been low for several years now and ongoing construction constraints mean few projects are getting started in spite of a clear need for more supply to keep pace with strong population growth.
• Securing a builder for apartment projects (BTS or BTR) remains extremely difficult while there is an abundance of government-backed infrastructure and Olympic projects on the horizon that are far lower risk and more attractive for building contractors.

Price growth remains strong

• Brisbane existing unit prices grew very strongly through 2024, which reflects the tight market balance and lack of supply of both new and existing stock. Price growth has slowed over recent months, but prices continue to rise.
• Brisbane rental growth has been strong for some time. Median 2-bed unit rents grew 5.2% over the three months to December and 10.9% over 2024. Rents are 43.5% higher over the past three years. However, affordability is starting to take the steam out of parts of the market.

Outlook: Market imbalances to grow

• The supply deficit in Brisbane’s apartment market is only likely to get worse over the next few years as the demand recovery continues to build momentum and new supply remains moderate.
• Tight rental market conditions are also unlikely to change, but rental growth will be somewhat constrained by wage growth as affordability is tested. Price growth is likely to remain strong, not only supported by market balance but by cost-push pressures on build costs for new apartments.