APPD Market Report Article

Melbourne

November 19, 2024

Melbourne retail outlook underpinned by tight occupancy

  • Victoria’s rolling annual retail trade growth to August 2023 was recorded at 1.8%, on par with the national average.
  • Leasing enquiries were anecdotally higher as retailers prepare for the end-of-year shopping period.

New retail space of 34,600 sqm in Q3 2024

  • Two new, two extension and one refurbishment project totalling 34,600 sqm reached completion in Q3 2024.
  • Quarterly completions rebounded to 38%, above the ten-year historical average (25,165 sqm) after six consecutive quarters of below-average completions.

All sub-sector yields were stable from the previous quarter and on a 12-month basis

  • The sub-regional sub-sector (6.50%) remained the highest yielding sub-sector in Victoria.
  • Quarterly transactions totalled AUD 259.8 million, 18% higher than Q2 2024.

Outlook: Yields expected to remain stable

  • Futures market is forecasting the RBA to cut rates in H1 2025, which may drive transaction liquidity in Victoria in the near term.
  • No further yield softening is expected in the near term.

Note: Financial and physical indicators are for regional shopping centres. Data is on a GLA basis.

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